Overview page: The Overview presents a composite view of geoeconomic risk for the selected country across four dimensions: D1 Statecraft Intensity, D2 Policy Signal Velocity, D3 Trade & Supply Chain Fragility, and D4 Macroeconomic Stress. Click any dimension card to navigate to its detailed analysis page.
Composite Risk Score (0–100): Unweighted average of the four dimension scores. A score above 50 indicates elevated geoeconomic exposure. Scores above 75 indicate high or critical exposure requiring active risk management.
Exposure vs. Posture: Exposure measures risk faced by the country as a counterparty — the degree to which it is subject to external economic coercion, supply chain disruption, and macroeconomic stress. Posture measures the country’s capacity to project economic power outward — its fiscal space, reserve currency leverage, alliance depth, and strategic resource control.
Strategic Assessment Banner: The composite score, risk band, and 90-day trend are computed from live pipeline data refreshed daily. The assessment narrative identifies the top two exposure drivers by dimension score.
Peer Comparison: Ranks the top 8 countries by the selected dimension score. The selected country is highlighted in gold. Rankings update when a new country is selected from the map.
Operational Intelligence: The four indicator cards — Operational Exposure Rating, Power Projection, Dynamic Regime, and 30-Day Projection — are derived from the composite score and 7-day delta trajectory. They are analytical tools, not investment recommendations.
Dimension Profile Radar: Plots Exposure (solid) and Posture (dashed) vectors across the four dimensions. A wide Exposure polygon with a narrow Posture polygon indicates a country under significant external pressure with limited capacity to respond.
Data sources: OFAC/BIS Entity List (D1, live) · Federal Register / EUR-Lex OJ (D2, daily) · PortWatch / UN Comtrade (D3, weekly/quarterly) · IMF WEO / Yahoo Finance / BIS REER (D4, daily–semi-annual) · IEA/Comtrade EPI (quarterly).
What this dimension measures: Statecraft Intensity captures whether a country is subject to (Exposure) or actively deploying (Posture) economic coercion instruments — sanctions, export controls, secondary pressure, and multilateral designations.
Why it matters: Economic statecraft is the primary mechanism through which geopolitical competition manifests in supply chains and financial markets. Rising statecraft intensity precedes trade disruption and financing constraints by 3–12 months.
Exposure score weights: OFAC SDN (Specially Designated Nationals — individuals and entities blocked from the U.S. financial system) designation coverage 35%; BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) Entity List presence 25%; sectoral sanctions breadth 22%; secondary sanctions exposure 10% (risk of extraterritorial measures affecting third-country firms doing business with the target); multi-regime overlap 8% (overlap across U.S., EU, and UN designation lists signals coordinated multilateral pressure).
Posture score measures outbound coercion: designation volume issued, export control enforcement rate, CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) coercion tracker incidents, and WTO (World Trade Organization) dispute initiation rate.
Data sources: OFAC SDN XML (live daily) · BIS Entity, Denied Persons, Unverified, and Military End-User lists (daily) · EU Consolidated Sanctions List · UN Security Council Sanctions List.
What this dimension measures: Policy Signal Velocity captures the rate of change in economic policy-instrument deployment — how fast a government is issuing executive orders, regulations, sanctions programs, and legislative changes. Velocity is a leading indicator: regulatory acceleration precedes market disruption and operating-environment change by weeks to months.
Why it matters: A country with moderate exposure but rapidly accelerating velocity represents a fundamentally different risk profile than one with the same score but stable policy output. Velocity is the earliest observable signal that a government is actively escalating or de-escalating economic pressure.
Velocity Index: Action count in rolling 90-day window divided by the 12-month baseline count. A ratio above 1.0 signals acceleration relative to the country's own historical baseline.
Instrument weighting: Enacted law and EO (Executive Order) or NSM (National Security Memorandum) carry 3x weight (immediate legal effect). Final rule or regulatory amendment carries 2x. Introduced bill carries 1x (lowest — legislation frequently fails to pass).
Noise filtering: Legislative introduction rate is discounted in election years. Policy reversals — measures rescinded within 180 days — increase the unpredictability sub-score feeding the Hedge/Reduce decision layer.
Data sources: U.S. Federal Register (daily) · EU Official Journal (daily) · Congressional bills via Congress.gov · G7/G20 joint statements (event-driven).
What this dimension measures: Trade & Supply Chain Fragility captures exposure to physical disruption of the goods a country depends on — through geographic chokepoints, concentrated supplier relationships, and critical input dependencies.
Why it matters: Chokepoint disruption creates immediate delivery failures. Critical input dependency creates medium-term production constraints that cannot be quickly substituted. HHI and AIS data together give a real-time picture of where fragility is highest.
HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index): Standard concentration measure — sum of squared market shares of all suppliers. Near 0 = highly diversified; 10,000 = single-supplier monopoly. Scores above 2,500 indicate high concentration and fragility. Applied to bilateral trade flows from UN Comtrade.
Critical import dependency: Reliance on externally sourced materials with no near-term domestic substitute — semiconductor materials, pharmaceutical active ingredients, rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt. Sourced from IEA (International Energy Agency) and USGS (U.S. Geological Survey).
Chokepoint exposure: IMF PortWatch AIS (Automatic Identification System) satellite transponder data — daily transit volume for 28 strategic maritime chokepoints including Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, and Bab-el-Mandeb, weighted by country trade dependency on each route.
Data sources: UN Comtrade (quarterly) · IMF PortWatch AIS (weekly) · IEA Critical Minerals Outlook · USGS Mineral Resources.